Library skill · Thinkers' principles
Thiel-style contrarian truth check
Tests whether a thesis or product bet rests on a real non-consensus belief, using the contrarian question Peter Thiel poses in Zero to One, and names the next step. Use it when writing or reviewing a strategy, pitch or product thesis.
Not affiliated with or endorsed by Peter Thiel or their companies. About these principles: Peter Thiel's ideas, explained.
Works in Claude, ChatGPT, and coding agents. On Team and Business, this library skill in your pod updates itself when we improve it.
When to use it
- Writing or reviewing a strategy, pitch or product thesis
- A plan reads like every competitor's plan
What you give it
- The thesis in a few sentences
- What most people in the field believe
- The evidence behind your belief
- What the plan asks for
What you get
The claim in the form 'most people believe x, but the truth is the opposite', bad-answer tests, evidence for and against with a test, 0 to 1 or 1 to n, the next step and a verdict.
How it works
- Write the claim in the book's form "Most people believe [x], but the truth is [opposite of x]." If it won't fit, the thesis is probably a variation, not a contrarian belief (principle 4).
- Check the "most people" half How do we know most people believe x? Cite what shows it (competitors' pitches, analyst notes, customer defaults) or mark [check: ...].
- Test against the two bad answers Is the claim already widely agreed? Is it one side of a familiar debate? If either, say so and ask for a sharper claim (principle 3).
- Test "important" If it's true, what changes for customers, costs or the market? A true but small claim is noted as such.
- Test "true" List the evidence for the claim, the strongest evidence against it, and the cheapest test that would show it's wrong. Mark weak evidence [check: ...].
- 0 to 1 or 1 to n Does the plan do something new, or take something that works and copy it into a new place? Say which; both can be valid, but they are different bets (principle 5).
- Name the next step Our addition, not from the sources: one concrete step that acts on the claim or tests it, with what, for whom, by when, and with what resources.
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Changelog
- v1.0.1 · · Example output now opens with the attribution and not-affiliated lines, as the skill's own checks require. Its next step no longer states a clinic size, team or timeline the input doesn't give, and the claim that confirmations exist elsewhere is marked to check.
- v1.0.0 · · First release.