Official skill · Strategy

Scenario planning

v1.0.1 · Updated 4 November 2026

Builds four scenarios from two critical uncertainties around one decision, tests the decision in each, and ends with signposts, robust moves, and contingent moves. Use it when before a long, hard-to-reverse commitment such as a lease, plant, or new country.

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When to use it

Before a long, hard-to-reverse commitment such as a lease, plant, or new country
The team argues about one forecast and the answer is 'it depends'
An annual strategy review in a market that could shift

What you give it

The decision and its time horizon
Known trends, rules, technology, and customer facts
The current plan or options
Who will use the scenarios

What you get

A focal question, forces split into predetermined elements and critical uncertainties, a 2x2 of four named scenarios, the decision tested in each, signposts, and robust and contingent moves.

How it works

Write the focal question One sentence naming the decision and the horizon, such as "Should we sign an eight-year lease for a second site?". A vague question ("what is the future of retail?") gives vague scenarios. Ask for the decision if the user gave only a topic.
List the key factors Write the local factors that decide whether the decision succeeds: customers' demand, prices, costs, competitors, staff, suppliers. Keep them close to the business.
List the driving forces For each key factor, write the wider forces behind it: social, economic, political, environmental, and technological. Use only forces the user named or that follow directly from their facts; ask about any area left empty.
Separate predetermined elements from critical uncertainties A predetermined element will happen in every scenario, because it is already under way (people already born, a law already passed, a contract already signed). A critical uncertainty is both important to the decision and genuinely open. Rank the forces on importance and uncertainty, and pick the two that score highest on both.
Build four scenarios from two axes Make each critical uncertainty an axis with two clear end states. The four combinations are the scenarios. Give each a short, memorable name and a paragraph describing that world at the horizon, with every predetermined element present in all four. Check that each is internally consistent and plausible; if one combination makes no sense, say so and explain the three that remain.
Test the decision in each scenario For each scenario, write how the decision and the current plan fare: what goes well, what breaks, and what the company would wish it had done. A decision that works in only one scenario is a gamble; name it as one.
Choose signposts For each scenario, pick 1 to 3 observable signals that would show the world is moving toward it, with where to watch and how often. Prefer signals that appear early and that someone will actually check.
Sort the moves Robust moves make sense in all or most scenarios: do them now. Contingent moves make sense only in some: prepare them, and tie each to the signpost that triggers it. Name any move to avoid because it fails badly in a plausible scenario.
End with the decision and next actions Answer the focal question in one paragraph, list the robust moves with owners, the signposts with who watches them, and a date to review the scenarios.

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